Today's polls skewed?

Illustration by Suphur Spoon

It was George Gallup's successful prediction that Franklin Roosevelt would defeat Alf Landon for the U.S. presidency that made his reputation as a poll-taker; most other polls had Landon winning by a landslide.

I remember reading that one of the reasons behind Gallup's correct prediction was that his competitors had based their predictions on surveys conducted via telephone. Trouble was, back then only the well-to-do owned telephones, thereby skewing the results of Gallup's competitors.

Many predict that Republicans will take Congress in today's voting. And, today, as in 1936, telephones may prove many poll-takers wrong.

Some suggest that today's poll numbers are skewed because surveys have been conducted via land lines and generally younger, generally better educated voters -- who are generally Democrats and left-leaning Independents -- no longer have land lines.

Tonight should be very interesting.

Comments

[Amy]

I admit it. I'm old fashioned. I like land lines. No wait. I PREFER land lines. I can hear -- and more importantly -- BE HEARD -- better when I use them. I've always been flummoxed by "Kids Today" who don't have them ... a symptom, I thought, of their inability to commit, to set down roots, to be accountable to a phone and all the old people who call them on it ... like potential employers or grandparents, and now apparently, pollsters.

I see now that maybe cell phone users, no matter what age, actually command more accountability -- answering only caller id's they recognize, knowing you called even if you don't leave a voice mail, selectively prioritizing their callers, answering only when they want to or have to. In short, they know what you're up to.

Here's hoping they all answer the call today and VOTE.

[Robyn]

We're not that young (hubby and I are both pushing 40)- reasonably well educated - not Democrats or left-leaning Independents - and we haven't had a land line in about 2 years. We even have 4 kids. Be careful about making these types of assumptions when thinking about advertising.

[Paula Zargaj-Reynolds]

I said "generally."